Coronavirus Outbreak

[Norm DeGuerre]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...-6-days-video/

[WARFAB]

Fingers crossed.

[Meketrefe]

THIS IS A VERY CONTAGIOUS VIRUS AND UNLIKE THE FLU, THERE IS NO VACCINE

I had to go out today to get some groceries and saw many people like me wearing mask and gloves but still
I saw a lot of people at the grocery store touching everything, karts, produce w/o gloves!!!
...touching their faces and arses and not giving a f##K about anything.

The cashier at the gas station had gloves but she told me they didn't give her a mask so I gave her two from a small pack I have in the drivers seat.

This is why the virus is spreading, they close businesses with close to zero risk yet the countries are not educating the population
how to properly handle themselves at grocery stores and gas stations or the few places they are allowed to go out.




Had a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in.

The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable.
This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people).
This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather.
The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage.

Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immuno-compromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02).
In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues.
This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine.

The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia.

While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector.

This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk.No one is even talking about that.

Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized.

It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.

[dwa12479]

Does anyone really know why we're doing everything we're doing?

https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanfo...d-on-bad-data/

What is real? What is true?

I keep wondering the same thing. Is this virus REALLY that horrible? It doesn't seem to be. But at the same time, if 50% of the population gets it, and 19% of them need hospitalization, that's 30 million +. Our healthcare system would collapse.

[Norm DeGuerre]

I keep wondering the same thing. Is this virus REALLY that horrible? It doesn't seem to be. But at the same time, if 50% of the population gets it, and 19% of them need hospitalization, that's 30 million +. Our healthcare system would collapse.

and that is why hardly anyone is working
I am high risk ..
high blood sugar, high BP, one crappy kidney
this cv could kill me before I made 70

[thughes]

If it does, can I have your motorcycles?

[Norm DeGuerre]

if You were nice to me, maybe one

[WARFAB]

At what point does the cure become worse than the disease?

[dwa12479]

At what point does the cure become worse than the disease?

That seems to be the $64k question. Our economy is going to be in the toilet for many years after this. Plenty of collateral deaths in the coming time could be attributed to that. Was it all necessary?

[WARFAB]

That seems to be the $64k question. Our economy is going to be in the toilet for many years after this. Plenty of collateral deaths in the coming time could be attributed to that. Was it all necessary?

Not politically correct to say, but everyone's life is worth a certain amount when talking healthcare. In a private healthcare system each individual and their family basically decides how much they're willing to pay for their health. Some people think any cost is worth it and are willing to go bankrupt for their health. In a public system, the government gets to determine how much is spent on your health.

it's tough to put a dollar figure on what is being done to the global economy right now, but an unimaginable amount of money is being spent per individual saved according to even the worst case scenarios for how bad this disease could be.

[usmcveteran]

Im hearing some people are getting letters from employer's saying they are essential for the specific purpose of showing police if they get pulled over.

I wonder what's coming next? Curfew?

[WARFAB]

My wife's boss gave everyone at her company a letter to print out. I don't think he really thought it was necessary, but some other employees were worried about it.

[Norm DeGuerre]

showing police if they get pulled over.

Curfew?

"pulled over" ..??
did You mean to say "SEIZED" ..?
I would be filing criminal charges in that instance

Curfew ..??
can not happen

[usmcveteran]

I think it was yesterday Cuomo was saying that this could go on for 9 more months

[Norm DeGuerre]

absolutely it will !!

[camper4lyfe]

Im hearing some people are getting letters from employer's saying they are essential for the specific purpose of showing police if they get pulled over.

I wonder what's coming next? Curfew?

Those letters are pointless, at least at this point. There's nothing, anywhere, that's said we can't travel or be outside. Just don't be a ding dong and hang out in large groups.

[usmcveteran]

Those letters are pointless, at least at this point. There's nothing, anywhere, that's said we can't travel or be outside. Just don't be a ding dong and hang out in large groups.

I just got letter in email from my job as well. I hope they are pointless.

[WARFAB]

From a practical standpoint, the authorities don't have the resources to stop everyone to check for a reason for driving.

[Norm DeGuerre]

[WARFAB]

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